Today, Central Asia is undergoing a critical period of transformation that will shape its future for decades to come. We are located at the heart of Eurasia, where the interests of global powers intersect and new strategic initiatives converge. It is here in Central Asia that the major trends of the modern world -- multipolarity, regionalization, technological breakthroughs, and emerging development models -- are manifesting with particular clarity. At this crossroads, it is more important than ever to determine which path of modernization to take -- not just to survive global uncertainty, but to emerge stronger from it.

Amidst these shifts, China is becoming a key actor, steadily expanding its influence across the region. As we all recall, it was in Kazakhstan in 2013 that the Belt and Road Initiative was first announced. Today, it stands as a symbol of a new Chinese development paradigm focused on infrastructure connectivity, strategic investments, and strengthening of political and economic ties.

This Chinese model of modernization that prioritizes centralized governance, state planning, and technological leapfrogging, naturally draws significant attention. For the countries of Central Asia, it offers both a potential source of inspiration and a subject of serious reflection. Kazakhstan, with its long-standing multi-vector foreign policy, is now facing strategic choices: how to preserve sovereignty, modernize, and retain flexibility amid mounting global pressures?

The shift toward a multipolar world offers Central Asian countries a degree of strategic freedom. There is no longer a need to make a binary choice between East and West. Instead, we can -- and must -- strike a balance, build bridges, and enhance our own subjectivity.

At the same time, globalization as we knew it in the 1990s-2000s has clearly slowed. The reasons are well known: financial crises, rising protectionism, political polarization, the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and deepening U.S.-China rivalry -- all of which are driving the global trend toward regionalization.

We now see countries in the region strengthening horizontal cooperation. For example, Uzbekistan is increasingly partnering with Kazakhstan and Tajikistan on energy and water issues. Kyrgyzstan is developing cross-border infrastructure and participating in the China - Kyrgyzstan - Uzbekistan corridor. Turkmenistan is activating its transport potential toward the Caspian Sea and Iran.

These developments indicate that regional initiatives -- like Consultative Meetings, 5+ formats, and the Belt and Road Initiative -- are evolving from diplomatic slogans into real platforms for modernization. In this context, modernization is no longer solely a domestic matter. It becomes a strategic response to a rapidly changing global environment. Central Asia is managing to build its own models of development while not shutting itself off from the rest of the world.

One of the most influential external reference points shaping processes in Central Asia is China’s modernization model. It is not a universal solution, but it sends a powerful message: rapid, consistent, and systemic development is possible -- anchored by a strong state, new technological solutions, and strategic investments.

China showcases how a combination of planned economy and digital innovation can produce impressive growth. This resonates with the region.

In Kazakhstan -- the region’s largest economy -- the Chinese modernization model is reflected in its infrastructure projects and ambitions for technological transformation. This includes Kazakhstan’s participation in the Digital Silk Road through the development of logistics platforms and industrial parks with Chinese involvement. The “Digital Kazakhstan” program also draws on the Asian approach, focusing on e-government services, blockchain registries, and the automation of business processes.

The first China - Central Asia Summit, held in May 2023 in Xi’an, marked a significant symbolic and political milestone. Not only did it institutionalize the format without external actors, but it also launched a mechanism for regular meetings among heads of state.

In this context, the upcoming second China - Central Asia Summit, expected this year in Astana, holds not just diplomatic but strategic importance. It comes at a time when the region is actively seeking sustainable modernization models and closer ties. The summit could serve as a platform to shape a regional modernization vision, in which China’s experience would serve not as a template, but as a resource to be adapted and rethought.

We consider it timely to focus on the following priorities during the summit:

- Launching new industrial and tech clusters under the Belt and Road Initiative;  

- Deepening cooperation in digital transformation (including AI, cybersecurity, and smart cities);  

- Formalizing support for the green agenda, including low-carbon development, water cooperation, and combating soil degradation;  

- Expanding educational and research exchanges, such as Luban Workshops, academic centers, and grant programs for young scholars;  

- Institutionalizing approaches to joint risk management and sustainable development -- both in economics and governance.

In other words, the upcoming summit presents a unique opportunity for Central Asia to formulate and present a consolidated vision of modernization that accounts for both national specificities and the real needs of our societies.

But it’s important to emphasize: no model can be imported as-is. What works in China may not necessarily suit Central Asia without adaptation. We have our own historical memory, political traditions, and unique cultural code. Therefore, for the countries of the region, the goal is not to blindly replicate foreign models, but to transform them while maintaining strategic autonomy.

Auther: Ruslan Izimov, Expert at the Center for Political Studies of the Institute of Philosophy, Political Science, and Religious Studies of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Source: Speech at the International Forum “Chinese Modernization and the China–Central Asia Community with a Shared Future”